Delegates arriving in Liverpool were met with blustery conditions that proved a fitting metaphor for the economic and political headwinds currently facing the social housing sector.

Against that backdrop, this year’s NHF Housing Finance Conference explored how the sector can remain resilient, credible and ambitious in the face of sustained uncertainty. Contributions from the Regulator, valuers, economists and sector leaders reflected a mood that was realistic but far from pessimistic, with a strong emphasis on governance, delivery and long-term confidence.

Our experts summarise some of the conference’s key themes below.

Regulator of Social Housing

Fiona MacGregor delivered her final speech as Chief Executive of the Regulator of Social Housing, reflecting on nearly 30 years in the sector and the increasingly difficult balance registered providers must strike between reinvesting in existing homes and delivering much needed new supply.

While acknowledging these pressures, the message beneath the surface was clear. The Regulator wants to see more development. Fiona highlighted that aggregated interest cover metrics can mask the fact that many non London registered providers still have the capacity to build – and she noted that funding remains available. Most directly, she commented that “the sector must seize the opportunity presented by recent funding announcements”.

At the same time, the Regulator’s focus remains firmly on the governance behind decision-making, how risks are being identified and managed, and how competing priorities are being weighed. Capsticks would echo her view that “governance is all-important”.

Poor governance and weak data were cited as common themes among providers dealing with safety and quality issues.

There were also positives to highlight. The consumer standards regime is driving meaningful improvements, the sector’s no loss and no default track record remains a major achievement, and approaches to risk management are more mature and resilient than ever before. Looking ahead, Fiona expressed a strong desire for longer term, cross party and genuinely collaborative approaches to housing policy, providing greater stability and clarity for the sector and its many residents. This is an aspiration we would all support.

Economic outlook and the role of the sector

David Miles from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) provided a sobering economic perspective. UK living standards, measured by GDP per person, have markedly underperformed the trajectory that people had come to expect over the past 50 to 60 years. The gap between assumed prosperity based on historic trends and the present reality is now stark – and increasingly difficult to ignore.

That underperformance feeds directly into today’s fiscal challenges. A structurally weaker growth outlook, repeated external shocks such as COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine driving sharp increases in public spending, taxes at historically high proportions of GDP and persistently elevated public sector debt have combined to create a constrained environment. Crucially, the UK has not experienced a sustained period of stable, meaningful economic growth that would allow the position to reset.

However, there was a more optimistic note. The OBR expects a significant increase in housebuilding over the coming years, with registered providers and local authorities playing a central role in delivering it. Paired with anticipated improvements in productivity, this has resulted in a more positive outlook than much of the prevailing public narrative suggests.

The message for the sector was an important one: registered providers and local authorities are integral to whether projected growth becomes reality. Their capacity to deliver homes at scale will be central to making the numbers add up, underscoring both the opportunity and the responsibility now facing the sector.

Valuations

Cautious optimism was also reflected in the valuations update. The overall outlook remains generally positive, supported by sustained house price growth in recent years and forecasts of the strongest growth in the 2028 to 2029 period. That said, speakers were clear that this trajectory is not guaranteed given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and wider economic fragility.

JLL and Savills both focused on practical steps the sector can take to support value. They encouraged registered providers to ensure that mortgagee protection clauses are correctly structured and that greater consistency is achieved in section 106 drafting. They urged funders to adopt a more consistent approach to affordable rent assumptions and to reconsider misapplied valuer rotation requirements. Registered providers were also advised to prioritise data quality, plan MV T uplifts earlier and prepare stock for charging well in advance, while valuers were encouraged to optimise CapEx assumptions and reflect market led comparable evidence where appropriate.

Stock rationalisation continues to gather pace. Between them, JLL and Savills reported transactions involving around 11,000 units over the past year, with deal sizes and complexity increasing. Both anticipate that 2026 will be an even more active year.

While AI is already enhancing the speed and analytical depth of valuations through access to larger datasets, there was clear consensus that professional human judgement, experience and sector knowledge remain critical to valuation outcomes.

Artificial intelligence

The increasing importance of data and the rapid development of AI were reflected in an entire stage dedicated to the topic this year. A particular highlight was a session on the launch of the NHF’s report exploring how housing associations are adapting to AI.

Across the sector, providers are actively considering where AI can deliver the greatest benefit, with some significantly further advanced than others. Nearly half of housing associations are estimated to use AI on a daily basis. However, 87 percent rated their AI knowledge as low and 60 percent have no AI strategy in place. Around 30 percent are not using AI at all, while a further 23 percent are not currently using it but plan to do so. This points to a strong appetite to embrace the technology, alongside a clear need for greater capability, confidence and shared learning.

In practice, housing associations are adopting a cautious and pragmatic approach. AI is being used to support – rather than replace – staff. Activity is focused on improving efficiency, data quality and resident experience, including drafting and summarising documents, automating routine tasks, improving data analysis, identifying risks earlier, triaging resident communications and supporting repairs, asset management and compliance. Most organisations are running small scale pilots using off the shelf tools, with humans firmly in the decision making loop while governance frameworks, policies and staff skills are developed in parallel.

Conclusion

The dominant message was one of realism underpinned by confidence. Speakers were clear about the scale of the challenges facing the sector, from constrained public finances to competing investment priorities, but equally clear about the role registered providers must play in addressing them.

Across the sessions, the emphasis was on doing the fundamentals well. Strong governance, reliable data, disciplined decision-making and thoughtful adoption of technology were repeatedly identified as enablers of credibility and delivery. With continued collaboration and a focus on long term outcomes, registered providers are well placed to respond constructively to the pressures ahead.

How Capsticks can help

We provide a full range of legal services to registered providers and local authorities. Our market leading teams are actively supporting clients on innovative funding solutions, partnerships, security charging, development and regeneration, mergers and acquisitions and stock rationalisation – many of the themes at the forefront of discussions in Liverpool.

If you would like to discuss any of the issues covered in this insight and what they mean for your organisation, please speak to Susie Rogers, Darren Hooker or Sarah Darvell to find out more about how Capsticks can help.